Forecast Log

Say this

Let me write what I think will happen — so reality can teach me.

Do this now 3 min

Write: date, decision, expected outcome, confidence %. Set a 30-day reminder. When it fires, compare prediction to reality.

Use when

You're about to commit to any decision where you have an expectation about what will happen.

Avoid when

The outcome is entirely outside your visibility or too far away to meaningfully track.

Why it works

Without a written record, memory rewrites your predictions to match what actually happened — a log makes self-deception impossible.

Without a written record, your memory quietly rewrites your predictions to match what actually happened. You ‘knew it all along’ — except you didn’t. A forecast log makes self-deception impossible. The percentage matters because it makes calibration measurable: if your 80% confident predictions come true 80% of the time, you’re well-calibrated. If they come true 50% of the time, your confidence consistently outstrips your accuracy — and now you know that, and can correct for it. This is the card that makes every other card more effective.

Go deeper · 8 min read

Hindsight Bias and Calibration: Why You Need a Written Record of What You Actually Predicted

You didn't 'know it all along.' Your brain just told you that you did. Without a written record of what you actually predicted, hindsight bias corrupts every lesson you try to learn from experience.