Clearer Moves

Sources

The deeper reads behind the cards cite published work. Here's the combined list, with a pointer to where each source shows up.

This is a reading list, not a relicensing of anyone's research. If you're building on these findings, cite the originals directly.

  1. Aggarwal, P., Jun, S. Y., & Huh, J. H. (2011). Scarcity messages: A consumer competition perspective. Journal of Advertising, 40(3), 19–30.
  2. Amabile, T. M., & Kramer, S. J. (2011). The Progress Principle: Using Small Wins to Ignite Joy, Engagement, and Creativity at Work. Harvard Business Review Press.
  3. Amason, A. C. (1996). Distinguishing the effects of functional and dysfunctional conflict on strategic decision making: Resolving a paradox for top management teams. Academy of Management Journal, 39(1), 123–148.
  4. Anderson, C. A., Lepper, M. R., & Ross, L. (1980). Perseverance of social theories: The role of explanation in the persistence of discredited information. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 39(6), 1037–1049.
  5. Anderson, C. J. (2003). The psychology of doing nothing: Forms of decision avoidance result from reason and emotion. Psychological Bulletin, 129(1), 139–167.
  6. Argyris, C. (1991). Teaching smart people how to learn. Harvard Business Review, 69(3), 99–109.
  7. Ariely, D., & Wertenbroch, K. (2002). Procrastination, deadlines, and performance: Self-control by precommitment. Psychological Science, 13(3), 219–224.
  8. Ariely, D., Loewenstein, G., & Prelec, D. (2003). 'Coherent arbitrariness': Stable demand curves without stable preferences. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(1), 73–106.
  9. Arkes, H. R., & Blumer, C. (1985). The psychology of sunk cost. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 35(1), 124–140.
  10. Arnsten, A. F. T. (2009). Stress signalling pathways that impair prefrontal cortex structure and function. Nature Reviews Neuroscience, 10(6), 410–422.
  11. Barnett, A. G., van der Pols, J. C., & Dobson, A. J. (2005). Regression to the mean: What it is and how to deal with it. International Journal of Epidemiology, 34(1), 215–220.
  12. Baron, J., & Hershey, J. C. (1988). Outcome bias in decision evaluation. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 54(4), 569–579.
  13. Baumeister, R. F., Bratslavsky, E., Finkenauer, C., & Vohs, K. D. (2001). Bad is stronger than good. Review of General Psychology, 5(4), 323–370.
  14. Baumeister, R. F., Bratslavsky, E., Muraven, M., & Tice, D. M. (1998). Decision fatigue: Is the active self a limited resource? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 74(5), 1252–1265.
  15. Bayes, T. (1763). An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, 53, 370–418.
  16. Bazerman, M. H., & Moore, D. A. (2013). Judgment in Managerial Decision Making (8th ed.). Wiley.
  17. Bazerman, M. H., & Watkins, M. D. (2004). Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming, and How to Prevent Them. Harvard Business School Press.
  18. Bezos, J. (2015). Letter to shareholders. Amazon.com, Inc.
  19. Bezos, J. (2016). Letter to shareholders. Amazon.com, Inc.
  20. Brockner, J. (1992). The escalation of commitment to a failing course of action: Toward theoretical progress. Academy of Management Review, 17(1), 39–61.
  21. Brockner, J., & Rubin, J. Z. (1985). Entrapment in Escalating Conflicts: A Social Psychological Analysis. Springer-Verlag.
  22. Brown, S. J., Goetzmann, W., Ibbotson, R. G., & Ross, S. A. (1992). Survivorship bias in performance studies. The Review of Financial Studies, 5(4), 553–580.
  23. Budescu, D. V., & Du, N. (2007). Coherence and consistency of investors' probability judgments. Management Science, 53(11), 1731–1744.
  24. Buehler, R., Griffin, D., & Ross, M. (1994). Exploring the 'planning fallacy': Why people underestimate their task completion times. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 67(3), 366–381.
  25. Chi, M. T. H., Feltovich, P. J., & Glaser, R. (1981). Categorization and representation of physics problems by experts and novices. Cognitive Science, 5(2), 121–152.
  26. Cialdini, R. B. (2001). Influence: Science and Practice (4th ed.). Allyn & Bacon.
  27. Cowan, N. (2001). The magical number 4 in short-term memory: A reconsideration of mental storage capacity. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 24(1), 87–114.
  28. Csikszentmihalyi, M. (1990). Flow: The Psychology of Optimal Experience. Harper & Row.
  29. Danziger, S., Levav, J., & Avnaim-Pesso, L. (2011). Extraneous factors in judicial decisions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 108(17), 6889–6892.
  30. De Dreu, C. K. W., & West, M. A. (2001). Minority dissent and team innovation: The importance of participation in decision making. Journal of Applied Psychology, 86(6), 1191–1201.
  31. Deci, E. L., & Ryan, R. M. (2000). The 'what' and 'why' of goal pursuits: Human needs and the self-determination of behavior. Psychological Inquiry, 11(4), 227–268.
  32. Dekker, S. (2006). The Field Guide to Understanding Human Error. Ashgate Publishing.
  33. Denrell, J. (2003). Vicarious learning, undersampling of failure, and the myths of management. Organization Science, 14(3), 227–243.
  34. Denrell, J. (2004). Random walks and sustained competitive advantage. Management Science, 50(7), 922–934.
  35. Dorner, D. (1996). The Logic of Failure: Recognizing and Avoiding Error in Complex Situations. Metropolitan Books.
  36. Duke, A. (2018). Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts. Portfolio.
  37. Dweck, C. S. (2006). Mindset: The New Psychology of Success. Random House.
  38. Edmondson, A. (1999). Safety to speak up and learning behavior in work teams. Administrative Science Quarterly, 44(2), 350–383.
  39. Edmondson, A. (2011). Strategies for learning from failure. Harvard Business Review, 89(4), 48–55.
  40. Eisenhardt, K. M., Kahwajy, J. L., & Bourgeois, L. J. (1997). How management teams can have a good fight. Harvard Business Review, 75(4), 77–85.
  41. Elton, E. J., Gruber, M. J., & Blake, C. R. (1996). Survivorship bias and mutual fund performance. The Review of Financial Studies, 9(4), 1097–1120.
  42. Englich, B., Mussweiler, T., & Strack, F. (2006). Playing dice with criminal sentences: The influence of irrelevant anchors on experts' judicial decision making. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 32(2), 188–200.
  43. Epley, N., & Gilovich, T. (2006). The anchoring-and-adjustment rule of thumb: Why the adjustments are insufficient. Psychological Science, 17(4), 311–318.
  44. Ericsson, K. A., Krampe, R. T., & Tesch-Römer, C. (1993). The role of deliberate practice in the acquisition of expert performance. Psychological Review, 100(3), 363–406.
  45. Fischhoff, B. (1975). Hindsight is not equal to foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1(3), 288–299.
  46. Fischhoff, B. (1982). Debiasing. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (pp. 422–444). Cambridge University Press.
  47. Fischhoff, B., & Beyth, R. (1975). I knew it would happen: Remembered probabilities of once-future things. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 13(1), 1–16.
  48. Flyvbjerg, B. (2006). From Nobel Prize to project management: Getting risks right. Project Management Journal, 37(3), 5–15.
  49. Forrester, J. W. (1971). Counterintuitive behavior of social systems. Technology Review, 73(3), 52–68.
  50. Freeman, R. E. (1984). Strategic Management: A Stakeholder Approach. Pitman.
  51. Gagné, M., & Deci, E. L. (2005). Self-determination theory and work motivation. Journal of Organizational Behavior, 26(4), 331–362.
  52. Galef, J. (2021). The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don't. Portfolio.
  53. Galton, F. (1886). Regression towards mediocrity in hereditary stature. The Journal of the Anthropological Institute of Great Britain and Ireland, 15, 246–263.
  54. Gigerenzer, G., Hertwig, R., van den Broek, E., Meder, B., & Martignon, L. (2005). 'A 30% chance of rain tomorrow': How does the public understand probabilistic weather forecasts? Risk Analysis, 25(3), 623–629.
  55. Gilbert, D. T., & Ebert, J. E. J. (2002). Decisions and revisions: The predicting future feelings of changeable outcomes. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 82(4), 503–514.
  56. Gneezy, U., & Rustichini, A. (2000). Pay enough or don't pay at all. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 115(3), 791–810.
  57. Goldstein, D. G., & Rothschild, D. (2014). Lay understanding of probability distributions. Judgment and Decision Making, 9(1), 1–14.
  58. Gollwitzer, P. M. (1999). Implementation intentions: Strong effects of simple plans. American Psychologist, 54(7), 493–503.
  59. Gross, J. J. (1998). The emerging field of emotion regulation: An integrative review. Review of General Psychology, 2(3), 271–299.
  60. Heath, C., & Heath, D. (2013). Decisive: How to Make Better Choices in Life and Work. Crown Business.
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  62. Hsee, C. K. (1996). The evaluability hypothesis: An explanation for preference reversals between joint and separate evaluations of alternatives. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 67(3), 247–257.
  63. Janis, I. L. (1982). Groupthink: Psychological Studies of Policy Decisions and Fiascoes. Houghton Mifflin.
  64. Janis, I. L., & Mann, L. (1977). Decision Making: A Psychological Analysis of Conflict, Choice, and Commitment. Free Press.
  65. Jensen, M. C., & Meckling, W. H. (1976). Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure. Journal of Financial Economics, 3(4), 305–360.
  66. Johnson, J. G., & Raab, M. (2003). Take the first: Option-generation and resulting choices. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 91(2), 215–229.
  67. Kahan, D. M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L. L., Braman, D., & Mandel, G. (2012). The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Climate Change, 2(10), 732–735.
  68. Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow. Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
  69. Kahneman, D., & Klein, G. (2009). Conditions for intuitive expertise: A failure to disagree. American Psychologist, 64(6), 515–526.
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