Skin in the Game
What happens to you if this advice is wrong?
Before acting on someone's advice, write down: What does this person gain if I follow their recommendation? What do they lose if it goes wrong? If the answer to the second question is 'nothing', weigh their input accordingly.
You're receiving confident advice — from a consultant, colleague, expert, or commentator — that would commit your resources.
The advisor has demonstrated repeated, accountable accuracy in this specific domain.
Why it works
People give bolder recommendations when they bear none of the consequences. Checking for asymmetric risk filters out the noise of cost-free confidence.
Advice is cheap to give and expensive to follow. A consultant who recommends a restructure doesn’t get fired if it fails. A pundit who predicts a market crash doesn’t lose money if they’re wrong. The asymmetry between the advisor’s risk and your risk is where bad decisions hide. Cynicism is unnecessary. Most advice is well-intentioned, and incentives still shape judgment whether people realise it or not. Someone who shares your downside risk will naturally be more careful, more specific, and more honest about uncertainty. The useful question is not whether they mean well. It’s whether their skin is in the same game as yours.