Base-Rate First
Before the story — what's the rate?
Before evaluating the specifics of your situation, write down: "In cases like this, the usual outcome is ___." Look it up if you can, estimate if you can't. Then ask: what specific evidence justifies deviating?
You're making a forecast, evaluating risk, or feeling unusually optimistic or pessimistic about an outcome.
The situation is genuinely unprecedented and no meaningful comparison group exists.
Why it works
Humans overweight vivid details and underweight statistical reality — starting with the base rate anchors judgment in evidence rather than narrative.
Your brain is a story machine. Give it a vivid detail — a friend who succeeded, a news headline, a gut feeling — and it will build a confident prediction around that single data point, ignoring the broader pattern entirely. Base rates are boring but brutally accurate: most restaurants fail, most startups fail, most projects take longer than planned. Starting with ‘what usually happens in cases like this’ doesn’t mean obeying statistics blindly. It means using them as a starting position, then asking what specific evidence justifies moving away from them.