Clearer Moves
Decision Mastery

Check the Evidence

Most bad decisions aren't reasoning failures — they're input failures. The evidence arrived pre-distorted: an anchor you didn't notice, a sample that survived, a base rate you skipped, a pattern that was really just noise reverting to its mean. These tools interrupt the moment between receiving information and acting on it. Each one targets a specific way evidence misleads, and gives you a two-minute check to run before the distortion becomes a decision.

Base-Rate First 4 min
Before the story — what's the rate?
You're making a forecast, evaluating risk, or feeling unusually optimistic or pessimistic about an outcome.
Confirmation Bias Flip 3 min
What's the best case against this?
You feel confident about a decision and haven't actively looked for reasons you might be wrong.
Sunk Cost Stop 2 min
Would I start this today if I hadn't already started it?
You're continuing something primarily because of what you've already put into it.
Anchor Check 2 min
What's the first number I heard — and what would I say without it?
A negotiation, salary discussion, price quote, or first opinion has set the opening frame.
Second-Order Effects 3 min
That's the first effect — what happens after that?
You're about to make a decision that affects a system — an organisation, a market, a relationship, a habit.
Survivorship Filter 2 min
I'm seeing the survivors — where are the ones who didn't make it?
You're making a decision based on examples of what worked — successful companies, people, strategies.
Regression to the Mean 2 min
Is this the new normal, or just a spike?
You're tempted to overhaul your approach based on a single outstanding result.
Precision vs Accuracy 2 min
This sounds exact — but how likely is it to be right?
You're making a decision based on forecasts, estimates, projections, or expert predictions.
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